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Cambridge Finance Workshop - Jose A. Scheinkman

Cambridge Finance Workshop Series are usually held on Thursdays during term time. The workshops are an opportunity for those working in finance to present their latest results or papers.
When Oct 09, 2014
from 05:00 PM to 06:00 PM
Where Room W4.03 Cambridge Judge Business School
Contact Name
Contact Phone 01223768129
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Jose A. Scheinkman is Edwin W. Rickert Professor of Economics, Columbia University and
Theodore A Wells '29 Professor of Economics (emeritus), Princeton University.

Jose A Scheinkman
Jose A Scheinkman

Workshop Title : Misspecified Recovery

Abstract:

Asset prices contain information about the probability distribution of future states and the stochastic discounting of these states. Without additional assumptions, probabilities and stochastic discounting cannot be separately identified. Ross (2013) introduced a set of assumptions that restrict the dynamics of the stochastic discount factor in a way that allows for the recovery of the underlying probabilities. We use decomposition results for stochastic discount factors from Hansen and Scheinkman (2009} to explain when this procedure leads to misspecified recovery. We also argue that the empirical evidence on asset prices indicates that the recovered measure would differ substantially from the actual probability distribution and that interpreting this measure as the true probability distribution may severely bias our inference about risk premia, investors’ aversion to risk, and the welfare cost of economic fluctuations.

The paper can be downloaded from:

Misspecified Recovery

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