Feb 06, 2013
from 06:00 PM to 07:30 PM
|Where||Ramsden Room, St Catharine's College|
|Contact Name||Philip Arestis|
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The next St Catharine's Political Economy Seminar in the series on the Economics of Austerity, will be held on Wednesday 6th February 2013 - Terry Barker will give a talk on 'The Financial Crisis and the World
Economy: When Can we Expect a Return to Normal?'. The seminar will be held in the Ramsden Room at St Catharine's College from 6-7.30 PM. All are welcome.
TERRY BARKER is Chairman of Cambridge Econometrics and Senior Department Fellow, 4CMR, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge. He is an economist with over 140 papers and books published mainly on economic modelling, energy economics, climate change mitigation policies and international trade. He was a Co-ordinating Lead Author for the IPCC's Third and Fourth Assessment Reports 2001 and 2007, taking responsibility for chapters on cross-sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation. His research interests are in "New Economics" and in developing and using large-scale models designed to address the issue of global decarbonisation at the UK, European and global scales. See http://www.landecon.cam.ac.uk/staff/profiles/tbarker.html
CONTENT: This seminar is a sequel to the one given 26-2-2009 "Projections of the "return to normal" of the global economy 2009-2010". In it I shall compare the projections with hindsight with the aim of explaining why neoclassical thinking led to massive errors of forecasting and policy.
Alternative projections made in 2009 using the model E3MG (with associated alternative policy portfolios) will be compared with other forecasts and scenarios made by the OECD, IMF etc and judged against the outcomes as available now in international sources. The scale of the global losses of GDP, employment and welfare due to outdated neoclassical thinking appears to be massive. The seminar will conclude with an assessment of when we can expect a "return to normal".